The moment Donald Trump blew the midterms
Democrats just partied like it’s 1974. On Tuesday night, they pulled off the largest midterm victory since the post-Watergate wave. Democratic Senate candidates conquered longtime Republican strongholds like Kansas and Texas — and probably (in the view of the internet’s gamblers) Mississippi and Alaska. When the dust settles, and all ballots are tallied, Democrats are […]
On Tuesday night, Democrats achieved the largest midterm victory since the post-Watergate wave, surpassing many of their own expectations and Republicans' worst fears. To understand this unexpected outcome, I spoke with Democratic data scientist David Shor. Shor, who has been critical of Democrats' declining support among working-class voters, found that Democratic turnout surged, particularly among young, politically disengaged, and Latino voters.
He noted that the Iran war, which led to a significant decline in Trump's approval on the economy, was a major factor in Democrats' success. The Iran war caused Trump's approval rating on gas prices to drop from 49% to 33% within a week, and his overall approval plummeted as well. This shift in public opinion allowed Democrats to gain ground with politically disengaged voters, particularly young voters, Hispanic voters, and infrequent voters, who swung toward them in large numbers.
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