The Bank of England hiked interest rates and warned inflation could hit around 5%

The Bank of England (BOE) increased interest rates for the first time in over three years on November 5th, warning that at least one more hike is likely if the US-Iran conflict persists. British inflation is projected to hit around 5% in mid-2027, double the central bank's target. BOE Governor Andrew Bailey stated that today's increase should not be seen as the first in a long sequence of hikes.

However, one dissenting voice, Catherine Mann, called for a bigger hike, proposing 4.25% instead of 4%. The BOE's Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to raise rates to 4% from 3.75%. Sterling strengthened against the US dollar following the decision, and two-year British government bond yields rose by around five basis points. Bailey mentioned a dip in oil prices over the past 48 hours as positive but warned that inflationary pressure remains significant.

The BOE upgraded its growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to 1.6% and 1.3%, respectively, citing strong data and temporary boosts from the annual Budget. However, inflation is expected to peak at an average of 4.8% in the second quarter of 2028, later than initially predicted in July.