The 2026 blue wave, in charts

In the upcoming 2026 midterm elections, Democrats are set to gain control over both the Senate and the House of Representatives. According to projections, 33 out of the 35 Senate races have been determined, with 20 of them resulting in Democratic victories. Surprisingly, eight of these races were in states that had previously voted for President Trump in 2024.

Notably, voters in seven states flipped a previously Republican-held Senate seat to a Democrat. Alaska and Mississippi's Senate elections are still considered too close to call, but even in those states, Republican senators won with smaller margins than expected. For instance, in West Virginia, where President Trump received 42% in 2024, Republican incumbent Senator Shelly Moore Capito won by around 20 points - half of the margin he achieved in the previous election.

Similarly, in Alabama, where Trump won by more than 30% in 2024, Republican Senator Barry Moore secured his Senate race by approximately 9 points.

On the other hand, Democratic candidates enjoyed larger margins in the 2026 midterms compared to President Trump's victories in 2024. Kamala Harris won Rhode Island by about 14 points in 2024, while Democratic Senator Jack Reed garnered a whopping 37-point victory in the 2026 midterms. In states where Democrats secured Senate seats in the 2026 elections, the average margin was twice as large as Harris' winning margins in 2024. Conversely, Republicans' average margins were half as large as Trump's winning margins in 2024.

Perhaps most strikingly, in states where voters switched allegiance from the 2024 presidential election to the 2026 Senate elections, all transitions went to Democrats, who gained roughly 20-point improvements in margins.