Susquehanna cuts SM Energy stock price target on production guidance trim

Susquehanna has lowered its price target for SM Energy shares to $33 from $44 while keeping a Neutral rating. Despite a 21.5% stock decline over the past week, analysts believe SM Energy is currently undervalued and trading below its Fair Value. The company reported third-quarter results that largely met expectations. Due to Permian and Uinta constraints, SM Energy trimmed its fiscal 2026 oil guidance to 220,000-222,000 barrels per day.

Total production is now forecasted at 420,000-422,000 barrels of oil equivalent daily, with fiscal year capital expenditure narrowed to about $2.75 billion. SM Energy has executed around $400 million in synergies, surpassing the $375 million post-merger target. The company's net debt is approximately $6.0 billion, and it remains focused on deleveraging to free up cash flow for buybacks.

With a market cap of $7.31 billion and a low P/E ratio of 5.2, SM Energy has been profitable over the last year. Investors are concerned about future outlook, tax burdens, and production constraints, even though the company exceeded Wall Street's expectations for the third quarter of 2026 with higher-than-anticipated earnings and revenue.