Republican fortunes go south as script flips

The 2006 Republican triumphs saw Democrats grab control of both houses of Congress from George W Bush due to the unpopular Iraq war. Fast forward to 2022, and another Republican president has lost both houses amid widespread opposition to a Middle Eastern conflict. However, Democrats' hopes for a strong "blue wave" proved to be a bit of a surprise.

Texas, and even Kansas, turned blue, with Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, and South Carolina following suit. Maine saw a Democratic victory over Republican incumbent Susan Collins, raising the total projected Democratic Senate pickups to seven, with Alaska still to be called. The election spanned from the Midwest to the South, with Trump carrying South Carolina by nearly 18 points in 2020, yet his handpicked Senate candidate lost.

The South also elected its first two Black governors, Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia and Byron Donalds in Florida. Bottoms became the first Black woman to ever be elected governor of any American state, while Donald's win amidst the broader Republican defeats showed that even a national wave can leave room for different choices in individual states. Michigan made history by electing Abdul El-Sayed, the first Muslim ever to be elected to the US Senate.

Trump campaigned as if he were still on the ballot, insisting he would have won in a landslide if he had been. Republicans, who lost their seats, now wonder what they were supposed to pretend. Trump's arguments for his policies, including tariffs, immigration crackdown, and tax cuts, were unconvincing. He never provided a clear rationale for the war in Iran, the desired outcome, or why the resulting price hikes were worth bearing.

These measures led to higher fuel costs, more expensive imports, and significant budget deficits while households struggled with high prices. The combined cost of these factors was borne by voters at the petrol pump.

Will Trump change course? It is more likely that he will seek an exit from the Iran war rather than abandon tariffs, as he has held that stance for decades. A settlement that restores normal Gulf shipping would benefit India, relieving pressure on the rupee and providing more room for the Reserve Bank to maneuver. Indian exporters should, however, continue to consider Trump's affinity for tariffs.

On election day, Trump suggested that America would end roughly $4 billion a year in aid to Israel, arguing that Israel could afford to buy its own arms. However, Congress will have a say in the timing, and the announcement might signal a willingness to change the terms of a longstanding commitment. The outcome could mark the end of MAGA as the dominant force in Republican politics.

Republicans may start questioning how many seats Trump's endorsements cost them in 2022. JD Vance, the evident successor, must now explain why Republicans should endorse him in 2028, given that his candidacy just led to a Democratic takeover of Congress. Vivek Ramaswamy, who lost to Amy Acton in the Ohio governor's race, faces an even more pressing dilemma.

With the movement built around Trump's supposed electoral magic losing faith in him, succession within the party will undoubtedly be more challenging.