Refinery Strikes Trigger Crisis In Russian Military And Civilian Aviation — Consequences

A series of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries has sparked a significant crisis in the Russian aviation fuel market, affecting both military and civilian aviation. Moscow may resort to lowering quality standards and seeking questionable import-substitution options to maintain the industry. In a recent incident, a new Su-57 fighter jet exploded and burned at a military airfield in Astrakhan region, estimated to be worth around $150 million.

Ukrainian military intelligence attributes this explosion to the use of low-quality surrogate aviation fuel, which is highly sensitive to the Su-57's engines. Russia's dependence on aviation fuel imports has grown due to declining domestic production. The Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine's Ministry of Defense revealed that more than half of Russia's oil refining capacity has been destroyed due to Ukrainian drone attacks.

Ukraine is prepared to halt attacks on Russian refineries for a month in exchange for receiving an equivalent one-month package of Patriot air defense missiles. The attacks on refineries have led to a sharp decline in the production of high-quality aviation kerosene. The situation in the civilian sector is also deteriorating, with passenger traffic falling by 1.5 million people over six months, ticket prices rising, and safety declining.

Russia's attempts to merge airlines into a holding company have been unsuccessful due to the lack of Western spare parts and personnel exodus. Meanwhile, the gas market in Russia has shifted from a shortage to a surplus, as the government's ban on gasoline exports keeps all fuel within the country. This crisis is burning the economy from within, pushing it toward a point of no return.