Oil price decline lifts mood, but volatility remains high

Oil prices dipped below $94 a barrel for the first time in two months, before rising slightly to $97.7, as markets speculated an end to the Iran conflict following Republican losses in the midterm elections and US President Donald Trump acknowledging Iran's role in his party's defeat. Indian crude prices, which peaked at $119.9 a barrel in October, their highest since March 2012, fell to $103.8 on Tuesday, their lowest in two months, amid optimism about a resolution to the US-Iran conflict.

Iran's exemption of commercial ships from four nations, including India and China, from transit restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz has increased hopes for improved availability and lower prices of West Asian crude for Indian refiners.

Brent crude prices have risen roughly 70% this year due to the war disrupting supplies from the Persian Gulf, and volatility has remained high between the US and Iran. Although the post-election price decline won't benefit consumers, it provides some relief to oil marketing companies, which are experiencing losses on every liter of petrol and diesel sold.

These companies have reported strong profit growth in the September quarter due to lower prices, but they have warned they may face higher prices in the current quarter. A sustained drop in global crude prices could help oil marketing companies avoid raising retail prices, limiting inflationary pressure in the economy. ICRA chief economist Aditi Nayar expects CPI inflation to average 5.2% in FY2027.