Oil and data centre stocks sink after US midterms

Oil, chip stocks and the US dollar faced pressures in Asia on Thursday as the outcome of the US midterms elections brought hopes for an end to the US-Iran war. South Korea's chipmaker-heavy KOSPI dropped 4%, nearing a seven-month low, while Taiwan's benchmark index fell 1.8%. Tech equipment suppliers impacted the Nikkei, which declined 0.5%.

Brent crude futures fell nearly 9% overnight, touching below $100 a barrel. The price drop marked the largest weekly decline since April 2020, when US crude briefly fell into negative territory. Lower energy prices boosted bond markets, decreasing yields and lifting the dollar to a one-month low of $1.1273 per euro, which benefited stocks.

Broad stock indexes gained on the clear election result, with the S&P 500 rising 1.6% and European shares hitting a two-month high. Solar supply chain stocks surged, anticipating Democrats' potential support for renewables, while data centre companies and equipment suppliers in Asia saw their shares fall due to expectations of stricter regulations.

The Democratic victories in Texas and Georgia, where voters elected candidates opposing data centre construction moratoriums, indicated a shift in public opinion on AI. Most analysts believe the outcome won't significantly hurt demand for artificial intelligence, data centres or computer chips, but anticipate a temporary slowdown. Chris Weston, head of research at brokerage Pepperstone in Melbourne, noted that the magnitude of the victory has surprised markets.

At $93.50, oil prices tested overnight lows in Asia, as traders bet that US President Donald Trump, facing a Democratic Congress and hit by high energy prices from the Middle East conflict, would be less inclined to escalate the war with Iran. Trump admitted on Wednesday that the war contributed to Republicans' defeat, and his vice president, JD Vance, was more explicit on social media, stating that the war was the reason for the Democrats' win.

A resolution could drive oil prices lower, alleviating inflation pressure and reducing the possibility of additional interest rate hikes. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasuries fell 6 basis points overnight and by another basis point in early Tokyo trade to 4.87%, while 2-year yields, which track short-term rate expectations, decreased about 2 basis points to 4.56%.