O ‘choque de desânimo’ que o mercado está precificando
Os gestores passaram os últimos dias ajustando as carteiras para um cenário em que o governo Lula não faz um ajuste fiscal capaz de estabilizar a dívida – misturado ao risco de partir para medidas heterodoxas quando a economia começar a patinar. Ainda que faltem evidências para projetar o médio prazo – o País sequer conhece a nova equipe econômica – o histórico dos últimos mandatos de Lula indica…
Governadores have been working over the past days to adjust their portfolios for a scenario where the Lula administration fails to implement a fiscal adjustment capable of stabilizing debt, amidst the risk of resorting to unconventional measures when the economy begins to slow down. Although there are no indications to project the medium term – the country does not even know the new economic team – the history of the last Lula mandates suggests that "it is not reasonable to expect a meaningful adjustment," said Vinland's chief economist, Aurélio Bicalho, in a call with clients early this morning.
The history also implies, according to him, that the government should try to stimulate the economy with fiscal and credit incentives – but, now, this tends to produce more inflation and little growth, due to the low idle capacity of the economy. Under previous Lula governments, the existence of idle capacity contained this transfer to prices, said the economist.
"Brazil's economic potential is low and there is no evidence of an increase in this potential. Our investment rate is small, productivity also, and the demographic question has changed a lot," he affirmed. For one of the country's main resource managers, the "despair shock" that has taken hold of entrepreneurs is expected to hit GDP starting in 2027.
"When that happens, there will be a panic and the danger is the government doing even bigger mistakes," said this manager. "The market is pricing that in. I'm with you tomorrow." An error, in the view of this manager, would be to use public banks to help sectors strangled by low interest rates. Another, in Bicalho's opinion, would be to raise the inflation target.
"Our expectation with regard to the new Finance Minister is that he does not overdo things," said the manager. In light of the scenario, like other managers, Vinland is more defensive. "We have no urgency in assembling positions," said José Monforte, one of the portfolio managers at the house. The macro fund is bought in dollars and investing in interest in Colombia – which, for Monforte, could initiate a devaluation cycle in 2027.
In equities, manager Rodrigo Andrade increased investments in exporters – such as Embraer, Suzano and WEG (all rose in the post-second turn, a signal that there is little to flee to). He also increased positions in Itaú, energy transmitters (such as Eneva and Copel) and Bradsaúde, a money-maker that benefits from a higher Selic. And is short on retailers and incorporators.
Written by urgent.news from Brazil Journal's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
