Maersk raises profit outlook as earnings surge, but shares slide on expectations miss

Maersk lifted its full-year earnings outlook after a strong third-quarter profit, but its shares fell as the results and revised forecast fell short of expectations. The Danish shipping and logistics giant reported EBITDA of $4.7 billion, up from $2.7 billion a year ago, but that was below the $5.04 billion average forecast in a Bloomberg poll.

Despite a 27% revenue increase to $18.1 billion, Maersk now anticipates full-year underlying EBITDA between $14 billion and $14.5 billion, up from its previous range of $10.5 billion to $12.5 billion. EBIT is now forecast at $8 billion to $8.5 billion, up from $4.5 billion to $6.5 billion earlier. The upgrade came after strong performance in Q3 and better visibility into 2026, with growth expected at around 4% for global container markets.

Analysts noted that expectations had risen following upgrades from Hapag-Lloyd and Zim. Ocean division generated a quarterly operating profit of $2.6 billion, up from $567 million a year ago, as higher freight rates more than offset a slight drop in cargo volumes. However, volumes in its main shipping business declined by about 1%, while global demand rose between 2% and 4% during the quarter.

EBIT increased to $3.3 billion, with an operating margin of 18.1%. Growth extended beyond ocean shipping, with Logistics & Services revenue up 13%, and Terminals reporting record revenue and strong earnings. Despite elevated freight rates benefiting from port congestion and resilient demand, Maersk's financial performance remains uncertain due to macroeconomic conditions, fuel prices, and freight rates. The company continues its $1 billion share-buyback program.