Lundin cuts copper outlook again as wild Chile weather bites
Its Caserones mine faces a prolonged recovery after winter weather disrupted mining, even as record metal prices boost cash flow.
Canadian mining company Lundin Mining has once again reduced its 2026 copper production forecast due to persistent damage from severe winter storms in Chile affecting its Caserones mine operations. The company has lowered its full-year guidance for Caserones copper production from 120,000–130,000 tonnes to 105,000–115,000 tonnes, bringing its overall forecast to 285,000–310,000 tonnes. This is the second cut in two months, following an earlier reduction in August.
Lundin's repeated cuts underscore the operational challenges faced at this key Chilean asset, despite record copper prices bolstering its balance sheet and funding expansion projects. The company's Caserones mine experienced about 30 days of reduced production due to the storms in Q3, with ongoing snowmelt restrictions limiting haulage and ore deliveries. In the three months ending September 30, Lundin produced 62,610 tonnes of copper, matching BMO's estimate but below the analyst consensus of 68,000 tonnes.
Gold production for the same period stood at 36,763 ounces, surpassing BMO's forecast of 34,900 ounces and aligning with consensus expectations of 37,300 ounces. Lundin maintained the mine's cash cost guidance at $2.15–$2.35 per pound, up from an August increase, and reduced sustaining capital expenditure guidance by $20 million to $215 million. The company's cash cost guidance remains at $1.95–$2.15 per pound.
Other operations performed better, with copper production at Chile's Candelaria complex up 13% from the second quarter, and Chapada mine in Brazil achieving its highest quarterly copper and gold output. Lundin's overall revenue for Q3 surpassed $1.1 billion, marking the fourth consecutive quarter above $1 billion, and free cash flow from operations reached $418 million, with a net cash position of $237 million at quarter-end.
President and CEO Jack Lundin noted that record copper prices have already surpassed the company's full-year 2025 EBITDA and free cash flow targets, positioning the firm for another record financial year.
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