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New Zealand's upcoming election, dominated by concerns over living costs and healthcare, could reshape the country's cautious approach to US President Donald Trump, according to analysts. The outcome may determine whether Wellington continues its "softly-softly" policy or seeks closer relations with a new constellation of middle and small powers, similar to Canada's approach under Prime Minister Mark Carney.

With a closely fought contest between the National Party, led by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, and the Labour Party, headed by former prime minister Chris Hipkins, the election's result could hinge on smaller parties needed to form a coalition. Professor Robert Patman from the University of Otago believes a shift in Wellington's foreign policy is more likely if a Labour-led coalition, encompassing the Greens and the Opportunity Party, wins power, as it would allow for a realignment of foreign policy to better reflect New Zealand's values and interests.

However, if the National-led coalition remains in place, a significant change in the country's approach to Washington is unlikely, given the pro-Trump orientation of NZ First and ACT.