Grattan on Friday: are the Nationals on life support?
How big is the threat posed by One Nation to the Nationals? And can the party’s past predict its future?
Matt Canavan, who has expressed interest in moving from the Senate to the lower house, is expected to win the central Queensland seat of Capricornia, despite One Nation having a substantial support base in the region. However, the bigger concern is the number of Nationals colleagues who will remain in federal parliament when he takes his seat in 2028.
For years, observers have predicted the eventual decline of the Nationals, but the current situation suggests that things may be more serious than ever, particularly for the state party in New South Wales (NSW) and at the federal level.
One Nation is making inroads into the Nationals' territory, gaining voting support and enthusiastic new members and volunteers. The May Farrer byelection may serve as a harbinger of future events, as the now One Nation-held southern NSW seat was once held by Tim Fischer, a former Nationals leader and deputy prime minister. The resilience of the Nationals will be put to the test in two state elections prior to the 2028 federal election: in Victoria this month and in NSW in March.
The party's fortunes appear to be better in Victoria, where the state Nationals have a distinct identity and One Nation's influence is weaker, than in NSW. However, in NSW, the party faces a near wipeout of their 11 lower house seats, with talk of a potential collapse of their presence in the state.
The optional preferential voting system in NSW will add complexity to the Nationals' efforts to retain their seats. In Victoria, the party anticipates retaining most of their nine lower house seats, with one at risk, and aims to secure Bendigo East, where former Premier Jacinta Allan is retiring. Former Nationals sources suggest that the names recognition of their Victorian MPs could be worth around 10% in polls.
Election analyst Antony Green notes that in federal elections, the Nationals have historically secured nearly 36% of the Coalition's seats, which is their highest proportion since World War II.
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