Global return-on-investment of COVID-19 vaccines in the first year of the vaccination programme: A model-based economic evaluation

The rapid development and deployment of COVID-19 vaccines in the first year of the vaccination program yielded impressive economic returns, according to a model-based economic evaluation. Vaccine creation and distribution cost $79.4 billion, while the health and economic benefits of vaccination were estimated to be between $6.43 trillion and $64.3 trillion.

Health benefits were quantified using two methods: cost-benefit analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis. These benefits were then compared to the costs incurred to estimate the return on investment (ROI) for both approaches. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to account for uncertainties in the parameter estimates.

The study found that high-income countries experienced the greatest health benefits per person vaccinated, while low-income countries gained the most non-health benefits per person vaccinated when measured as a proportion of gross domestic product per capita. The estimated ROIs ranged from $59.7 to $809 per dollar invested in the base case analysis, with a range of $60.3 to $753 across the probabilistic sensitivity analyses for both methods.

Limitations of the study include its reliance on previous analyses of COVID-19 vaccine impact and a time horizon limited to the first year of vaccination. The conclusions draw that the swift development and global distribution of COVID-19 vaccines represented a highly valuable investment, and that prioritizing equitable vaccine distribution and vaccine development should be a top priority in times of global health emergencies.