Fuel, transport costs push inflation to 7.8% in October 2026

Inflation in the Philippines surged to 7.8% in October, the highest rate since February 2023, as per the Philippine Statistics Authority's November 5 report. Transport costs, specifically a jump in fuel prices, were the main drivers behind this uptrend, causing the index to climb to 20.1% from 14.6% in September. Housing, water, electricity, and gas expenses also rose, reaching 9.3% from 8.4% in the prior month.

Food inflation modestly decreased to 6.4% from 6.8%, as the rates of fish and vegetable inflation slowed. However, rice and corn prices saw quicker increases, with inflation rising to 20.7% from 20.3% and 19.3% from 17.3%, respectively. While core inflation, which excludes fluctuating food and energy costs, climbed to 5.4%, it still indicates persistent price pressures affecting the nation's economy.

The value of the peso has been declining since January, with a single peso only worth P0.68 in September 2026 compared to its 2018 base value. As long as inflation stays above the central bank's 3% target, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) anticipates the country will remain in a tightening cycle. The central bank recently increased its key policy rate by 50 basis points to 5.5% in October, a total of 125 basis points this year.

The next BSP meeting is scheduled for December 17, with the release of its final monetary policy report on December 23.