Democrats swept the midterms. What comes next for the U.S., Iran and Israel?

The recent midterms saw a significant shift in US politics, but according to political experts Jacob Laznik and Shir Perets, the most concerning development for Israel came from within the Republican Party. Just hours after the election results, Vice President JD Vance suggested four strategies to win back voters who had left the GOP: ending the war in Iran, focusing on the cost of living and inflation, putting America first, and "changing our relationship to Israel."

This statement came shortly after President Trump announced that US aid to Israel would cease by the end of 2026, years before the current Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) expires. The announcement caught Israel off guard, as Laznik notes that it came from within the Republican Party, suggesting that the real threat may be coming from unexpected quarters.

Perets cautions against fear-mongering, pointing out that fewer than 10% of the incoming lawmakers are outspoken opponents of Israel, and Trump has vowed to be "Mister Veto." She also uses a gift-card analogy to explain why the $4 billion in aid primarily benefits American defense firms. Both experts are candid about their concerns, discussing rhetoric that would have ended careers before 2016, and the current political climate, where even a progressive like Scott Wiener faced angry protesters for not calling the Gaza war a genocide.

A particularly striking observation from Perets is that Israel did not rely on the Republicans for support; instead, Netanyahu "hinged himself like a barnacle" to Trump. Given that the new Knesset was sworn in on November 10, and the Democratic Congress arrives in January, Laznik and Perets examine how little time Netanyahu and Trump have left to take unilateral action.

They explain why another round of fighting, if it occurs, is likely to happen soon, and they explore potential off-ramps for a president eager to be remembered as the one who ended Iran's nuclear program. Ultimately, they conclude that a change of guard in both Washington and Jerusalem might lead to a reset of the Israel-US relationship, rather than its end.