DA claims more than 1 million black South Africans voted for it, but analyst says ‘not so fast’
The analyst noted that, as more results filtered through, some trends appeared to be developing differently from what early projections had suggested.
The Democratic Alliance (DA) claims that over one million black South Africans voted for the party for the first time in local government elections, marking a potential historic political shift. However, political analyst Professor André Duvenhage from North-West University advises caution before confirming this milestone.
The DA's Federal Council deputy chairperson, Ashor Sarupen, announced the internal projections showing the party's strong performance among black voters. Sarupen stated that the DA was on track to receive more support from the black community than the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), positioning the DA as a mainstream party across all communities.
Duvenhage acknowledges that such outcomes are possible but stresses the need for further analysis while vote counting continues. He notes multiple uncertainties that make definitive predictions challenging at this stage. The DA has highlighted the projected result as evidence that traditional racial voting patterns are weakening, with voters increasingly prioritizing governance and service delivery over historical loyalties.
However, Duvenhage cautions against drawing definitive conclusions regarding a dramatic political realignment. He points out that initial projections have not yet been corroborated by more specific data from the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC). As vote counting progresses, new trends appear to be emerging, such as increased ANC support and strong performances by other parties like ActionSA.
Despite these cautions, Duvenhage suggests that the DA would likely need around a million black voters to achieve its projected performance nationally. He believes the broader election outlook remains largely unchanged, with the ANC expected to secure a low-to-mid 30% share and the DA in the mid-20s. The MK party is predicted to perform strongly in KwaZulu-Natal, while the EFF may finish in the high single digits or low double digits.
While the DA's claim could ultimately prove correct, Duvenhage argues that the final electoral results will determine whether the party has achieved the political watershed moment it is celebrating or if the outcome falls within South Africa's established electoral trends.
Written by urgent.news from The Citizen's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
