Brazil’s industrial output falls 0.8% in September

Brazil's industrial output declined by 0.8% in September, continuing a downward trend that has now persisted for four consecutive months. This information is derived from the Monthly Industrial Survey (PIM) released by Brazil's statistics bureau IBGE on November 5. The decline marks the fourth drop in the past five months, according to the PIM.

Notably, the September figure fell short of the median market forecast, which had predicted a decline of -0.4%. Over the past year, industrial production has grown by a mere 0.2%. Analyst André Macedo stated that these recent performances indicate a "clear slowdown in the pace of growth." The cumulative decline over the last five months amounts to 4.1%, which partially counteracts the 4.2% gain recorded in the first four months of the year.

Presently, industrial output remains 16.5% lower than its all-time high, which was recorded in May 2011. The sector's monthly performance breakdown reveals that, from August to September, a "widespread pattern of declines" was observed, impacting three out of the four major economic categories and 17 out of the 25 industrial activities surveyed.

In terms of major economic categories, capital goods (machinery and equipment) saw a significant decline of -1.9%, semi- and non-durable consumer goods decreased by -1.2%, intermediate goods (products used to produce other goods) dropped by -0.7%, while durable consumer goods only saw a slight increase of 0.7%. Among the industrial sectors, the largest negative contributions came from coke (a coal-derived product), petroleum products, and biofuels, with declines of -4.2%, followed by food products with a decline of -1.7%.

Lower production of ethanol and sugar was largely attributed to these declines, with the decline in sugarcane processing significantly impacting these sectors due to increased rainfall. Conversely, the extractive industries recorded the largest positive contribution at 1.7%, with increased extraction of crude petroleum, natural gas, and iron ore.

Compared to September last year, industrial production fell by 2.5%, marking its sharpest decline since March 2024. It is important to note that the comparison was affected by calendar effects, as September 2026 had one fewer business day, and a high comparison base, as industrial production increased by 2% in September 2025.