Bitcoin win rate vs. S&P 500 recovers as post-midterm history favors stocks

Bitcoin's win rate against the S&P 500 has rebounded in recent weeks, as historical patterns suggest stocks tend to perform well following Democratic victories in midterm elections. Glassnode's analysis shows Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 in 50% of the last 90 trading sessions, marking a turnaround after months of underperformance.

This shift comes as Democrats gained control of the Senate and House in the recent midterm elections, a result historically linked to strong stock market returns. Capriole Investments found that Democratic sweeps of Congress under Republican presidents have been followed by an average gain of 10.7% for the S&P 500 over the subsequent three months.

Bitcoin's average per-session returns have also been slightly higher than those of the S&P 500 during this period. The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has become more positive, with the 20-day correlation now standing at 0.63, reflecting the positive market sentiment following the election results.