Bank Negara strikes softer tone

Kuala Lumpur: Analysts believe Bank Negara Malaysia's choice to keep the overnight policy rate (OPR) at 2.75% is a typical move to wrap up the year, considering the nation's relatively calm inflation situation and a stable ringgit. HSBC senior Asean economist Yun Liu stated there was no rush for the central bank to increase interest rates, especially as Malaysia continued to show the lowest inflation rate in the region.

The ringgit has remained stable against the US dollar so far this year, providing Bank Negara with more flexibility to maintain its policy compared to regional peers experiencing stronger currency depreciation pressures.

The fiscal responsibility in the 2027 Budget, despite containing some consumer-friendly measures, lessens the urgency for Bank Negara to raise rates preemptively, said the economist. However, the firm noted the central bank's tone was unexpected as it sounded less hawkish than in its September statement. One example is Bank Negara's outlook on 2027 inflation, which now includes both headline and core inflation edging higher, but remains contained, a phrase that was removed in the September statement when referring to 2026 inflation.

HSBC expects Bank Negara to raise rates by 25 basis points in the first quarter of 2027, bringing the policy rate back to 3.0%. What sets this apart from peers is that this is likely to be a one-off normalisation move, rather than a fixed hiking cycle, according to the firm. OCBC senior Asean and India economist Lavanya Venkateswaran added that Bank Negara's decision aligns with consensus and expectations.

She mentioned that the analysis of growth and inflation reflects Bank Negara's forward-looking expectations for 2027. Bank Negara highlighted that the economy's solid fundamentals are expected to keep growth resilient in 2027, with the external sector being a major driver of growth, supported by the ongoing global technology upcycle and strong tourist spending.

The firm reiterated its long-held view that Bank Negara will normalize its policy rate to 3.0% at its January 21 meeting. The main risk to their call is that Bank Negara may opt for a longer period to assess the need for normalization.