Analyst: DA gains could leave ANC fighting for control of Gauteng metros
The ANC is heading into coalition talks with a weak hand in Gauteng’s metros and Nelson Mandela Bay, with projections putting the gap between it and the DA at about six percentage points.
Analysts predict that the African National Congress (ANC) may struggle to maintain control of Gauteng’s metropolitan areas following the recent municipal elections, potentially leaving the Democratic Alliance (DA) in a stronger position. Louw Nel, a senior political analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, notes that the CSIR’s projections show the ANC with 31.7% of the vote and the DA at 25.7%, a six-percentage-point gap that could prove decisive.
In contrast to the 2021 local government elections, where the ANC led with 45.59% and the DA trailed at 21.62%, the early results suggest a significant setback for the ANC. The DA is projected to emerge victorious in five or six of the eight metros, including Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, Nelson Mandela Bay, and Mangaung. The ANC, however, remains ahead in Buffalo City but is expected to lose its majority there for the first time.
Nel warns that the ANC’s negotiating position in coalition talks could be weakened, potentially affecting the Government of National Unity (GNU). The early results also indicate that the DA’s gains in the Gauteng metros and Nelson Mandela Bay have not been matched by other parties, such as the Patriotic Alliance and the MK Party.
Dr Morné Mostert, a strategic foresight adviser, suggests that the fragmented political landscape could result in numerous hung councils, introducing a new dynamic in coalition negotiations. He cautions that peaceful formation of councils will be crucial for international stability, particularly for investors.
Written by urgent.news from IOL's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
