Analysis-Trump's political humbling signals short-term gain, long-term pain for China

The Republican Party's electoral defeat in the US midterm elections may provide China with a temporary advantage in trade negotiations with Washington. The midterms saw Democrats gain control of Congress, fueled by voter discontent over economic hardships exacerbated by Trump's trade wars with China and other nations. This political setback could compel Trump to be more cautious about disrupting the current trade truce with Beijing.

Former Chinese Foreign Ministry official Shen Weizhong acknowledges that the incoming Democratic administration may approach China differently, and that stability in US-China relations for the next two years would be beneficial. However, other analysts caution that Trump, more constrained at home, may become more aggressive in pursuing foreign policy victories, particularly with regard to issues like Taiwan and Iran.

The imminent trade talks between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping present an opportunity for China to leverage the potential instability in Washington. Should Trump be more keen on avoiding a repeat of his trade war with China, Beijing might push harder for tariff reductions and other concessions. Yet this approach risks a miscalculation, potentially undermining the stability Xi is striving to maintain.

Past agreements with China, like the one at the recent APEC summit in Shenzhen, have delivered minimal economic gains for the US. Relations with a Democratic administration, such as Joe Biden, have been notably strained over human rights issues and Taiwan. Trump's potential successors could be more hawkish on China, presenting Beijing with additional leverage in future negotiations.

While China's trade relationship with Russia and North Korea remains robust, recent US commitments to Taiwan may prompt Beijing to respond with strong opposition to any further US arm sales to the island.