ANALYSIS: ANC on the rack — coalition minefield could unleash biggest internal ructions yet
The ANC’s national leadership must decide on coalition partners across metros, risking conflict with regional structures and deepening divisions over power, patronage and strategy – and sending important signals about the party’s future in the 2029 national and provincial polls.
The African National Congress (ANC) faces an unprecedented period of internal turmoil as it prepares to decide on coalition partners for the upcoming 2029 national and provincial elections. The party's national leadership must navigate a complex web of political decisions that could lead to significant internal division and conflict.
With six or seven metropolitan areas and numerous councils to consider, the ANC must determine which parties it will cooperate with and which members will receive jobs and positions. This decision will send important signals about the party's future direction.
The ANC has opted to let its national leadership make coalition decisions rather than allowing regions to make unilateral choices. While this approach aims to prevent factionalism, it could result in the party being perceived as having disparate interests and agendas. Furthermore, the ANC might consider a set of guiding principles for its negotiations, although this has not been publicly disclosed.
One potential strategy could be for the ANC to always prioritize working with the largest party in each council, which might include the Democratic Alliance (DA) in Gauteng metros and the MK party in eThekwini. However, this approach could tarnish the party's reputation by appearing to govern solely for the sake of retaining power. This strategy might also alienate voters in the years leading up to the 2029 elections.
As the coalition decisions loom, power is rapidly concentrating in the hands of a select few ANC officials, with the final say resting in the hands of a small number of national officials. The national executive committee will likely be consulted, but the process of deciding whether to collaborate with parties such as the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), MK, or the DA will be protracted and fraught with uncertainty.
Ultimately, the ANC's coalition decisions will have far-reaching consequences for the party's future trajectory in both national and provincial elections. The next three weeks will be critical, as the party's leaders must reconcile the competing interests of its members and regional structures while navigating the murky waters of coalition politics.
Written by urgent.news from Daily Maverick's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
