Your company probably saw the problem coming. Here’s why it got blindsided anyway

Most strategic surprises aren't really surprises. Inside the company, someone almost always detects the signal early. The question is why the organization doesn't act on those insights while there's still time. An organization's early warning capacity has three parts: sensing, discipline, and acting. Sensing refers to whether you detect leading indicators when the signals are still weak.

Discipline is about having a consistent process with dedicated time and people to address these signals. Acting is determining how to move during the window of optimal warning: late enough for the signal to be credible but early enough to still shape the outcome. The better these three factors are developed, the more likely you are to anticipate trouble.

The Cassandra organization displays excellent sensing but weak process and low acting. For example, Kodak invented digital photography but failed to reshape its profitable core business in response to the digital inflection point. Kodak filed for bankruptcy in 2012 after investing billions in printing, fueled by a desire for revenge against HP. In contrast, Fujifilm faced the same signals but acted decisively, shifting its focus to medical imaging, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and display materials.

To avoid blindsiding yourself, deploy tripwires – leading indicators that trigger pre-agreed responses within the leadership team. Encourage debate, politics, and emotional reckoning ahead of the inevitable change. Leaders should venture to the edges, engaging with non-customers, startups, adjacent industries, and front-line employees. Institutionalize early warning reviews on a fixed calendar to ensure continuous monitoring of signals.