What’s the message for China as Japan weighs US$500 billion defence surge?

Japan is considering nearly doubling its defence spending to nearly 80 trillion yen (US$508 billion), according to media reports. This substantial increase could significantly enhance the capabilities of Japan's military in the coming years, potentially making it a more formidable force in the region. Experts suggest that the enhanced capabilities could help deter or respond to potential operations by the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) around Taiwan and the East China Sea, as well as improve Japan's ability to sustain prolonged operations in a regional conflict.

The proposed defence budget remains subject to government negotiations, with the expected range being around 70 to 80 trillion yen. The revised budget would be approximately 1.8 times the current plan, but it is likely to be reduced after scrutiny of procurement plans. The increase comes as Japan prepares to revise its three key national security documents by the end of the year.

The expanded defence budget is expected to bolster Japan's ability to challenge the PLA from multiple dimensions, including through the use of drones, artificial intelligence, and multi-domain warfare, including cyber and space capabilities. However, building these capabilities will take time, and Japan's defence industry is working to produce and sustain the systems at scale.

The increased defence spending will also require significant fiscal adjustments, including potential tax hikes and increased borrowing. China, which views Taiwan as part of its territory and rejects any foreign military intervention, has expressed concerns over Japan's rising defence capabilities and increased defence cooperation with other regional countries.

China has warned of growing "neo-militarism" and risks to regional security. Despite these tensions, the United States, Japan's main international backer, is committed to providing Taiwan with weapons and opposing any attempt by China to forcibly reunify the self-governed island. The complex geopolitical landscape in the region could lead to a security dilemma, where each side perceives the other's defensive preparations as a potential offensive threat.

Ultimately, the purpose of Japan's security policy should be to prevent war, not merely to prepare for potential conflicts.