Ukraine’s Economy Contracts 0.7% in Q3, Worse Than NBU Estimated
Ukraine’s real GDP fell 0.7% from a year ago, according to the official flash estimate, as the data showed a toll on the economy after Russia’s summer strikes. The figure is worse than the 0.5% decline the National Bank of Ukraine estimated on Oct. 29, when it also forecasted a 0.4% contraction for 2026.
Ukraine's economy contracted by 0.7% in Q3, surpassing the National Bank of Ukraine's earlier estimate of a 0.5% decline. This decline was attributed to Russia's blockade of Ukrainian ports and attacks on production facilities, which had a more significant impact than initially predicted. Real GDP also fell by 0.5% from the previous quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis.
This marks the second consecutive contraction in Ukraine's economy since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion. The NBU had revised its 2026 GDP forecast from a 1.8% growth to a 0.4% decline, marking Ukraine's first annual contraction since 2022. The NBU estimated that Russia's blockade and strikes subtracted 1.9 percentage points from this year's GDP, exacerbating the effects of losses in metallurgical and ore mining enterprises, as well as other industrial sectors, trade, and agriculture.
Inflation is projected to reach 12.5% for 2026, up from the previous forecast of 10.0%, and to 7.3% for 2027, before a return to the 5.0% target in 2028.
Written by urgent.news from Kyiv Post's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
