Ukraine GDP falls 0.7% y-o-y in Q3 2026 – statistics

In the third quarter of 2026, Ukraine's real gross domestic product (GDP) experienced a contraction of 0.7% compared to the previous year's third quarter. This decline followed a 0.4% growth in the second quarter and a 0.6% decrease in the first quarter, as reported by the State Statistics Service. Preliminary data indicates that real GDP contracted by 0.5% on a quarter-on-quarter basis, after adjusting for seasonal factors.

The National Bank of Ukraine significantly revised its GDP outlook in late October, shifting from an expectation of 1.8% growth for the year and 2.8% growth for the following year. The bank now anticipates a contraction of 0.4% for the year and a mere 0.4% increase next year. Similarly, the World Bank revised its forecast for Ukraine's GDP growth in 2026 from 1.8% to 1.2%, and projected a slower 1.5% growth for 2027, down from the initial 1.8% estimate.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) also lowered its forecast for Ukraine's real GDP growth to 1.5% in 2026, from 2.2% previously, and to 2.5% in 2027, down from the earlier 4% projection. The EBRD's downward revision is attributed to Russian strikes on ports and vessels in the Black Sea region, which have negatively impacted Ukraine's economic prospects.