UK Officials Said AI Would Add £400 Billion to the Economy. That Figure Mainly Came From Google

The UK government’s estimate of £400 billion in economic benefit from artificial intelligence was largely based on a report commissioned by Google, according to a recent admission from the UK AI minister. The original estimate came from a 2023 report produced by Public First, a British consultancy firm now operating under the name PF Global.

However, the government’s own assessment of AI’s potential economic impact by 2030 is significantly lower, ranging from £55 billion to £140 billion, with a central estimate of £120 billion. The discrepancy has been attributed to the slow adoption of AI technology by the government, with public sector departments and agencies using the higher Google figure for nearly two years.

Despite being aware of the lower estimate since at least November 2025, government agencies continued to use the higher figure until recently. Labour MP Dame Chi Onwurah criticized the government for promoting AI hype and for publishing outdated estimates, emphasizing the need for transparency and realism in discussing the technology’s potential benefits.

PF Global highlighted the importance of faster AI adoption and integration into civil service workflows to improve its economic impact. The government's revised estimates are seen as a welcome step, but there is concern that the figures used have underlying assumptions and incentives, often stemming from industry funding or collaboration.

Experts urge the government to rigorously vet the economic projections it relies on and to fund independent research to ensure that the benefits of AI are accurately assessed and delivered.