Two more warning signs identified before October 7

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and Southern Command failed to prevent key aspects of Hamas's October 7, 2023 attack, with one overlooked factor being efforts to assassinate Hamas military chief Mohammed Deif. At 7:58 a.m., Deif himself alerted Gaza and the world of the invasion. Meanwhile, Air Force Chief Tomer Bar spent hours investigating Deif's potential assassination, tracking his movements and analyzing how other top Hamas officials were acting.

The focus of such an assassination plan could have provided more insight into Hamas's intentions. Despite this, top IDF officials did not consider a major surprise attack likely. They had previously tried to assassinate Deif, but always failed. Prior to October 7, Deif was viewed as more dangerous than Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar, who later emerged as the ideological architect of the invasion.

Deif was killed in July 2024, and Sinwar in October 2024. A recent report revealed an IDF drone spotted Gazan terrorists removing coverings from rockets, which could have indicated increased readiness for a wider attack, yet no top IDF officer had the complete picture, and those who were aware believed the worst-case scenario would be a small breach into one or two Israeli villages.