Trump says 'largely true' Iran war led to Republican midterm loss

Vice-President Dan Vance sent ripples of surprise through Washington on Wednesday by blaming the Iran war for his party's mid-term election defeat. This sharp criticism appeared to be an attempt to distance himself from President Donald Trump ahead of a possible 2028 White House run. In a 600-word X post, Vance admitted that Trump's 2024 base had deserted Republicans during the election.

Trump himself had admitted the war played a role in Democrats taking control of the House and Senate. While Vance has backed the war since the US and Israel attacked Tehran in February, he was reported to have privately expressed opposition. This private disagreement with Trump was revealed in Vance's statement. Trump, known for demanding loyalty, agreed with Vance, saying the midterms were largely decided by the war, and he would do it again if given the same choices.

This suggested Trump might give Vance a wide berth should he run for president. Vance's statement was a way to separate himself from Trump, according to foreign policy expert Daniel Byman. Vance didn't mention Trump by name and attributed much of his analysis to unnamed pollsters. He proposed a four-point plan to win back voters: end the war, focus on the cost of living/inflation, put America first, and change the relationship with Israel.

These points encapsulated Vance's worldview and suggested the core argument in a future stump speech. The full impact of Vance's criticism remains to be seen, as the next presidential election is still two years away. Vance is expected to run but hasn't made an official decision.