Trade and the end of antiquity, or did Islam serve to deglobalize the world?

The decline of ancient trade and economic activity is a topic of interest as political power shifted away from the Mediterranean region towards the Middle East and northern Europe during the End of Antiquity. Coin finds provide insights into monetized transactions, as coins gradually spread along trade routes. By compiling a database of half a million ancient coins from the fourth to the tenth century, researchers were able to estimate a dynamic model of trade and money.

Their findings reveal several key points about the evolution of trade and consumption during this period.

Firstly, Mediterranean trade was significantly disrupted by the emergence of a new border between Islam and Christianity. This political shift likely had a detrimental impact on the already existing trade networks that thrived in the Mediterranean region. Secondly, economic activity began to shift away from the Mediterranean region starting in the sixth century.

This suggests that trade routes and centers of economic activity were gradually moving towards the Middle East and northern Europe. Thirdly, the real consumption peaked in the Middle East during the eighth century, indicating that the region was experiencing a period of economic prosperity. Lastly, by the end of the ninth century, Islamic Spain and Frankish northwestern Europe had emerged as the wealthiest regions of the ancient western world, further highlighting the changing dynamics of trade and economic power during this time.

The research, published in Econometrica, was conducted by Johannes Boehm and provides valuable insights into the complex interplay between political shifts, trade routes, and economic activity during the End of Antiquity. The study challenges the notion that Islam necessarily served to deglobalize the world, demonstrating instead that the wealthiest regions of the ancient western world experienced a period of economic prosperity.