Three lessons and a three-step roadmap for new provinces

The recent surge of political discourse surrounding the creation of new provinces in Pakistan sheds light on the necessity of careful consideration and deliberation in such matters. Administrative boundaries, while not sacred, should be viewed as mechanisms designed to serve defined public interest. The senior official from a multilateral development bank emphasized that these changes should not be seen as a mere conspiracy, but as a reflection of a healthy approach to reassessing their utility and viability.

However, restructuring a federation is a complex undertaking with deep and wide-ranging implications. Hasty, discordant political statements cannot replace the need for thorough, inclusive deliberation and analysis.

The author draws upon global experiences to provide three lessons and a three-step roadmap for Pakistan's context. The first lesson is to never treat the creation of new provinces as just drawing a new map. Instead, it should be framed as a fundamental state reform aimed at reducing inequality, democratising opportunities, and improving public services.

The second lesson is that defined public interest, rather than political ambition or vested interests, should be the principal driver for change. This demands deep and genuine engagement with the public, filtering out political noise and faux narratives to avoid proxy gerrymandering. Lastly, there must be absolute clarity on the purpose of the proposed changes, with transparency on both the goals and the process to avoid political and social discontent.

The author identifies three insights peculiar to Pakistan's context. Firstly, the functionalisation and empowerment of local governments must be embedded within the debate on new provinces, as they are not mutually exclusive discussions. Secondly, how provinces create administrative units should be scrutinised, as they often rely on administrative fiat rather than legislative approval.

Lastly, repeating old solutions wrapped in tired narratives and tactics, such as administrative fiat, illegal referendums, or ethno-linguistic nationalism as a criterion, will only lead to further problems.

To move forward, the author proposes a three-step roadmap: first, establish a 'Commission for Citizen-Centric Change' as a multi-stakeholder, cross-party, independent, and empowered institution to lead the process. This commission should be tasked with extensive public engagement, technical analysis, and ensuring transparency and knowledge management.

Second, institute a 'Public Interest Test' framework that assesses public benefits, fiscal viability, and institutional readiness to ensure sustainability. Finally, test this framework and its implementation to ensure its effectiveness in addressing Pakistan's specific context.