The long road towards 6G: Spectrum, investment and making 5G complete

The long road towards 6G hinges on spectrum, investment, and refining 5G capabilities. By 2040, it's anticipated that 6G will have achieved prominence, surpassing 5G around 2035-2037. The 2030s will witness the coexistence of 5G and 6G networks, highlighting the importance of strategic choices today that will affect the capacity and accessibility of mobile networks in the 2030s.

The path to 6G involves years of meticulous planning, investment, and coordination across regulation, standards, and spectrum allocation. Harmonizing these elements is vital for the success of any generation, including 6G. While there's no need for universal uniformity, a consensus on foundational spectrum, standards, and policies is essential.

Currently, efforts are underway to develop these areas, including securing spectrum capable of supporting wide channels (200-400 MHz) in relevant bands, finalizing globally agreed 3GPP standards, and implementing national digital policies to boost network investment and foster productivity and economic growth. As of now, there are approximately 350 5G networks globally, a figure poised for significant expansion.

Despite launching in 2018, 5G is only now entering its dominant phase, with connections projected to overtake 4G within the current decade. The promise of 5G was to offer a consistent user experience, but delivering this has required time and investment. As 5G matures, network quality is improving, and traffic is growing. Continued investment is crucial in two technology areas: 5G standalone and the forthcoming 5G-Advanced.

Both can enhance productivity and stimulate further traffic growth. However, spectrum is essential for unlocking these benefits. If spectrum levels remain unchanged, cities housing over 50% of the world's urban population could face capacity constraints by 2030. The success of 5G isn't attributed to a single application but rather ensuring existing networks can handle data demand efficiently.

Looking ahead to 6G, capacity enhancement remains a key objective. Since there are around 8.8 billion mobile connections but only 5.8 billion unique subscribers, the gap between connections and subscribers is set to widen with the rise of AI, sensing, and multi-device environments. As a result, connections are expected to surge faster than the population utilizing them.

Spectrum policy during the 6G era is about more than just maximizing speeds; it's about ensuring sufficient capacity where demand is highest, often utilizing mid-bands, while maintaining broad geographic coverage and consistent quality of experience. Both urban and rural areas require low-band spectrum to achieve parity. Two primary elements must be addressed when releasing spectrum for the 6G era in the 2030s: encouraging investment in 6G networks through forward-thinking government policies and understanding industry requirements.

The latter involves recognizing that 6G will necessitate 200-400 MHz channels per operator, along with sufficient overall capacity. Analysis suggests that around 2-2.5 GHz of mid-band spectrum may be needed per market by 2035-2040, increasing to 2.4-3.3 GHz in higher-demand regions. However, this does not imply that all this spectrum must be allocated simultaneously.

A realistic roadmap can provide operators with long-term network planning visibility, while harmonized spectrum distribution can achieve economies of scale and keep devices affordable. Establishing a sustainable and equitable 6G environment can serve as a foundation for economic opportunities in the 2030s. The decisions made regarding spectrum, standards, infrastructure, and investment will not only determine the capabilities of 6G networks but also influence the equitable distribution of their benefits.