Thailand may not reach 40 million tourists again until 2031 or later

Bangkok – Thailand may face a 10-year wait before reclaiming its pre-pandemic status as a destination for 40 million annual foreign tourists, according to a recent survey by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC). The study revealed that only 10.6% of tourism operators believe the country can achieve this milestone by 2029, with 32.2% predicting it to occur between 2031 and 2032, and 30.4% forecasting it after 2032.

A concerning 9.1% of respondents even feared Thailand might never reach the 40 million visitor mark again. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, Thailand welcomed nearly 40 million foreign tourists in 2019. UTCC President and Chief Adviser Thanavath Phonvichai highlighted the country's growing competition from regional rivals, particularly Vietnam, which offers fresh attractions, competitive pricing, and enhanced flight connections.

UTCC projects Thailand will receive around 31.5 million foreign tourists in 2026, a 4.5% decrease from the previous year. It anticipates a partial recovery to 34 million arrivals by 2027, potentially generating 1.632 trillion baht in tourism revenue, though acknowledging the uncertainty surrounding this figure. The first nine months of 2026 saw a 3.8% decline in foreign visitors to 23.2 million, with South Korean arrivals dropping 25.4%, Malaysian tourists falling 15.2%, while Chinese tourists increased by 15.2%.

Thanavath emphasized the need for Thailand to overcome weaknesses in tourism competitiveness, such as flight connectivity, value for money, and safety perceptions, asserting that traditional hospitality alone is insufficient to attract international visitors.