Some Costs Facing Households, since 2024: Consumer Items, Housing, Health Premiums
Note that CPI growth accelerates post tariffs, but most profoundly, post-war. Health premiums under ACA have risen. Figure 1: CPI (blue), Cleveland Fed nowcast of 11/4 (blue), implied CPI from Michigan year ahead expectations (light blue square), AIER Everyday Price Index (red), all 2024M01=1.00. Orange vertical line at “Liberation Day”; Vertical green line at start […]
Post-war and post-tariff periods have seen accelerated inflation, with health premiums under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) also increasing. Figure 1 illustrates CPI (blue), Cleveland Fed nowcast of November 4 (blue), implied CPI from Michigan year ahead expectations (light blue square), AIER Everyday Price Index (red), with all 2024M01 set to 1.00.
An orange vertical line marks "Liberation Day," while a green vertical line indicates the start of the US-Iran war. According to the data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Cleveland Fed, the University of Michigan, American Institute for Economic Research, and the author's calculations, Figure 2 shows the Case Shiller 20 city house price index (blue), ACA marketplace average health care premium (red), and 30-year mortgage rate (%) (green) with 2024M01 set to 1.0.
Despite the fact that significant macroeconomic developments are often attributed to executive or legislative branch policies, it is clear that the war, combined with the One Big Beautiful Bill's (OBBBA) borrowing implications, have contributed to rising mortgage rates. Furthermore, the rise in ACA premiums, both current and future, can be directly attributed to the OBBBA, as noted by Mr. Trump today.
Written by urgent.news from Econbrowser's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
