Mizuho cuts Mosaic stock price target on margin pressures

Mizuho has lowered its price target on Mosaic Co. stock to $20 from $22, while keeping a neutral rating. The fertilizer producer reported a significant decline in third-quarter 2026 earnings, with adjusted EBITDA at $324 million, a 60% year-over-year decrease. Adjusted earnings per share were negative $0.19, far below the consensus estimate of negative $0.03.

Mosaic remains unprofitable over the last year, with an EPS of -$2.01 and levered free cash flow of -$947 million. The drop in stock price target is attributed to margin pressures, particularly in Phosphate and Potash segments, which were impacted by lower selling prices and increased input costs. Despite rising phosphate prices, Mosaic faces affordability concerns as phosphate is more expensive than potash.

The company expects phosphate production to remain limited due to the Iran conflict and scarcity of raw materials like sulfur. Analysts have also issued mixed ratings on Mosaic's stock, with some upgrading and others downgrading it based on revenue projections and valuation approaches.