Italy will be no easy opponents, say South Africa

South Africans are set to cast their votes on Wednesday in a significant local government election, with the outcome potentially reflecting the nation's current mood before the next national polls. The electoral process, which began at 7:00 am and concludes at 9:00 pm, is attended by over 29 million registered voters, though only 46% turned out during the last municipal elections in 2021.

The incumbent African National Congress (ANC), which spearheaded the country's anti-apartheid struggle, is expected to retain its lead, but recent polls indicate a decline in its support. For the first time in a local election, the ANC managed to receive less than 50% of the votes, falling to just over 40% in the national elections in 2024. This situation has compelled the ANC to form a coalition government with nine other parties.

The opposition Democratic Alliance (DA), the second-largest party, is focusing its efforts on Johannesburg, aiming to capitalize on the service delivery failures that have plagued the ANC's governance in the past. Meanwhile, the breakaway opposition uMkhonto weSizwe (MK), led by former president Jacob Zuma, is making strides in the east coast port city of Durban, drawing away support from the ANC and finishing third nationally with 14.5% of the vote.

The election will determine the composition of municipal councils, which then choose mayors and form the administrations responsible for governing the cities. With outright majorities unlikely in several major cities, the election could lead to another round of complex coalition negotiations, as parties negotiate alliances necessary for governance. Coalition rule is already prevalent, with 74 of South Africa's 257 municipalities governed by coalitions or minority administrations by February 2026.

The final results, expected on Sunday, will provide a clearer view of the political landscape ahead of the general election in 2029 and will also have implications for the ANC's future. The party is scheduled to elect a new leader at its December 2027 conference, a decision that will shape its leadership for the upcoming national polls.

Political analyst Kingsley Makhubela believes that the election will largely be influenced by voters' daily experiences, rather than political loyalties. He emphasizes the importance of "bread and butter issues" such as water, electricity, roads, and sewage, stating that people will not base their votes on sentiments. Makhubela also suggests that the potential for a new culture of political tolerance may emerge from the possibility of coalition governments, a shift in South Africa's increasingly fragmented political landscape where political enemies have often spoken in harsh terms.