Israel Certifies Vote, Rejects Fraud Claims

Israel's Central Elections Committee certified the results of the 27 October election on Wednesday, 4 November, finding "no evidence of irregularities that compromised the integrity" of the vote. The committee, chaired by Supreme Court judge Justice Noam Sohlberg, approved the results by 15 votes to 2, with 14 abstentions. Otzma Yehudit, the conservative party led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, was the only party to vote against the certification, alleging the elections were "stolen" and results "fraudulent" with foreign interference.

The Shin Bet, Israel's internal security agency, told the committee that foreign financing and influence activities involving large sums of money are widespread but have not provided evidence. Neither the 53-member bloc led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor the 48-member opposition bloc led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot has the 61 seats needed to form a government alone.

A government must secure 61 seats to govern without support from other parties. Netanyahu's Likud holds the most seats with 27, followed by Eisenkot's Yashar with 21, and the Joint List with 11. The new President Isaac Herzog has opened consultations and asked party leaders for "originality and creativity, courage and goodwill."

The certification eliminates the formal basis for challenging the results, putting the decision in Herzog's hands. A government formed with or without Arab-party support would send a different signal to Washington, as Israel is one of the United States' closest allies. While Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets currently show Eisenkot at 65.0% and Netanyahu at 31.1% to become prime minister, no post-election polls from named institutes were found.