Iran has no chemical capability threatening Israel, defense official says

The US midterm elections could have far-reaching consequences beyond American borders. President Donald Trump has been overturning decades of American foreign policy, alienating allies and adversaries alike. Now, both Iran and Israel are closely monitoring the election results to gauge how they will impact his actions abroad. The outcome could influence whether Trump negotiates a deal with Iran, escalates the conflict, impacts U.S. support for Israel, or the intensity of America's push to end Russia's war in Ukraine.

Democrats will have new tools to challenge Trump, but he still holds considerable freedom to act abroad, leaving world leaders to ponder: will defeat make him more willing to compromise or more determined to achieve his objectives? Iran is celebrating Trump's midterm setback, but it remains cautious about what comes next. The Islamic Republic has hinted at a possible new U.S. strike or a fresh push for a deal.

While Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei dismissed the notion that the results would alter U.S. policy, Iranian officials suggest Iran's strategy does not rely on American elections. Tehran is preparing for more war while simultaneously intensifying diplomacy. Iran's strategy hinges on its ability to withstand U.S. pressure and continue its pursuit of concessions.

The risk of escalation is real, with reports suggesting Trump may order more intense strikes to appease his base. However, Iran remains unfazed, warning that its retaliation would be more extensive than previous rounds. Diplomacy offers another path forward. Talks that stalled over the summer have recently picked up, with Iran sending officials to Qatari mediators who are circulating proposals with Washington.

Tehran's leadership may feel vindicated, but this does not guarantee a solution to their problems. Trump needs a diplomatic victory but may be reluctant to appear weak. Tehran, on the other hand, could read his setback as an opportunity to demand greater concessions. They may expect intensified diplomacy alongside military threats, with an interim deal to open the Strait of Hormuz being more realistic than a comprehensive one. For Israel, the U.S. midterm elections could mark the end of an era in U.S.-Israel relations.