Iran could make or break Trump’s final two years, historian argues

In his latest analysis, historian Victor Davis Hanson predicts that Iran and the economy will be the key factors determining the final two years of President Donald Trump's term. Following the Republican midterm defeat, Democrats gained control of the House of Representatives and Senate in the recent election. With their new majorities taking office in January, Democrats will face a divided government for the remainder of Trump's presidency.

Hanson argues that Iran's nuclear program is a central test for Trump, as he must succeed or fail in achieving the denuclearization of Iran quickly. He expects Trump to rely on executive orders domestically and retain considerable freedom abroad, while expecting Democrats to block judicial and Cabinet nominations. Comparing the Republican setback to those suffered by Bill Clinton in 1994 and Barack Obama in 2010, Hanson notes that Democrats' ability to block appointments and control federal spending will be crucial.

The election outcome has been attributed to frustration over the Iran war and living costs. Trump has accepted the election result and expressed his willingness to work with Democrats while maintaining the right to veto legislation he considers unacceptable. Congressional pressure on Iran policy can come through confirming senior administration officials and federal judges, as well as controlling federal spending.

A separate analysis from The Jerusalem Post's Yonah Jeremy Bob highlights the potential for Democrats to constrain Trump's handling of Iran through investigations, delayed appointments, and pressure on defense budgets. Bob cautions Israel to engage with both Trump and congressional Democrats on its security concerns. However, Hanson warns of potential overreach by Democrats, predicting that their victories could lead to miscalculations and a weakening of their position.