How Trump and Republicans lost the 2026 midterm elections, according to The AP Voter Poll

After a decade of Donald Trump's leadership in U.S. politics, the majority of voters appear tired and frustrated with him, according to the AP Voter Poll, a survey conducted among midterm voters across all 50 states. President Trump's failure to fulfill key promises, particularly in controlling inflation, significantly impacted his fellow Republicans during the recent midterm elections for the House and the Senate.

The poll indicates that voters perceived Trump as more preoccupied with his personal wealth and extravagant lifestyle than addressing their needs.

Trump further exacerbated the situation by endorsing candidates with questionable loyalty, amplifying their struggles in an already challenging political climate. He also suggested, in a Fox News Channel interview, that Democrats fought hard, but his endorsement of candidates who were not fully committed to him played a role in their defeats. However, the poll also contains a cautionary note for Democrats, as many voters still harbor disdain for the party.

Inflation was an inescapable issue for voters, with its effects evident in their daily lives, such as grocery store receipts and gasoline station prices. The financial burden of necessities like auto repairs and utility bills was particularly felt in Republican strongholds like Texas, where about 2 in 10 voters reported severe hardship due to inflation, and about three-quarters of this group supported Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico.

An additional 6 in 10 voters, in general, experienced moderate hardship, and Talarico garnered the majority of their support as well.

The blame for inflation was primarily placed on Trump's policies, particularly his tariffs, involvement in the Iran war, and his unfulfilled promise from two years ago to lower prices. About two-thirds of voters nationwide acknowledged that Trump's policies had worsened the economy, and out of this group, around 8 in 10 opted for Democratic candidates.

More than half of voters nationwide emphasized that government corruption was crucial for their vote in Congress, surpassing the percentage that prioritized the cost of living.

Despite Republicans' attempts to downplay Trump's personal wealth accumulation over the past year, most voters viewed him as self-centered and focused on his interests. During his second term, Trump solicited donations from influential companies to construct his desired White House ballroom while simultaneously dismantling parts of the building's East Wing.

This behavior trickled down to his family's business deals and associates' actions involving pardons and federal policies. Ultimately, about two-thirds of voters believed Trump lacked proper priorities, and the majority of these voters backed Democratic House candidates.

During the past two years, Trump acted independently, and most of the Republican-controlled House and Senate showed little objection to his decisions. He laid off federal workers, imposed new tariffs, initiated a war with Iran, remodeled Washington in gold paint, threatened various institutions, and bullied numerous loyal allies.

Voters clearly indicated their desire for increased congressional oversight, with about 7 in 10 voters asserting that Congress was not doing enough to provide checks and balances for the presidency, including 4 in 10 Republicans. However, even among swing voters who supported Democratic candidates, about half held a somewhat or strongly unfavorable view of the Democratic Party, despite it being more popular than the GOP.

For some voters, Democratic candidates represented a chance for change, leading them to support candidates with perceived experience, even if it meant choosing Republican incumbents in certain instances.