Ganadores y perdedores en los mercados con el cambio político en EEUU

The electoral defeat of Donald Trump and the Democrat dominance in the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States modify investment perspectives. Initial portfolio adjustments after the elections have already given clues about the assets most and least favored. From variable income to fixed income, passing through the various Asian markets, foreign exchange, commodities, even cryptocurrencies.

The effects of the political shift in the United States may end up splashing on most financial markets. For months, analysis firms had detailed the consequences of a Democratic Party victory in the midterm elections held yesterday. The final results have confirmed the scenario expected by the polls, and Donald Trump approaches his last two years in office without Senate or House of Representatives control.

The Democratic Party's gained share of power may reduce the Trump Administration's ability to carry out its political initiatives. This new scenario alters investment perspectives, and its effects are already reflected in the first portfolio adjustments made this morning, once the election results in the United States are confirmed.

Investors react to the new political scenario with positioning on various fronts. One of the most significant is the resumption of purchases in US sovereign debt, traditionally one of the most defensive assets in the markets. Investors dilute their concerns about US fixed income. The greater demand raises the price of bonds, and rotates interest demanded downwards.

The ten-year debt return deviates thus from the 5% barrier, falling to the 4.90% threshold. The ten-year bond return moves away from the 5% barrier, falling to the 4.90% threshold. The euro and the British pound react to the new political scenario in the United States with significant rises against the dollar. The US dollar, conditioned in recent times by oil prices, weakens in the first day after the midterm elections.

The euro takes off above 1.12 dollars, and the pound approaches its rise to the 1.35 dollar threshold. Gold quickly regains its sparkle. The precious metal rises from lows, and despite the reduced intraday volatility of gold, spikes today with gains of up to 2.5% above the $4,000 mark. On the stock market, the first moves after the US midterm elections began to show significant signs.

China's variable income has shot up. In a cautious day in Asia, with slight rebounds in the Korean Kospi and a 1.4% drop in Japan's Nikkei, China's CSI 300 index shot up 2.4%. The Democratic Party's control of the US Congress opens the door to less belligerent policies towards China, and to a greater relative development of its AI compared to American companies.

The variable income of Europe also takes on a more bullish sign compared to the US stock market after the Democrats' victory. Countries like Spain, one of the most signaled by Trump's trade threats, rise in the increases, to the point that the Ibex signs intraday maximums above 19,000 points. The purchases received by assets such as US sovereign debt, gold, or China's variable income occur in parallel to the more unfavorable investment flows recorded by other markets.