Earnings call transcript: Ambea Q3 2026 profit gains lift shares near record high

Ambea's third-quarter profit surged as improved occupancy, better staffing efficiency, and stronger operations in its Nordic care businesses drove adjusted EBITA up 17% year-over-year. The Swedish care provider also reported its free cash flow surpassed SEK 1 billion for the first time in 12 months. The company's shares rose 3.39% to $19.67, nearing its 52-week high of $19.46, and have climbed 51% over the past year and 40% in the last six months, reflecting increasing investor confidence in Ambea's turnaround.

Ambea's performance in the quarter was broad-based, with growth stemming from higher occupancy, better service matching, and tighter control of staffing and capacity. The results suggest the business is benefiting from structural demand in elderly and social care across Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland. While Vardaga (Swedish elderly-care unit) and Nytida (Swedish social-care business) delivered strong profitability, Stendi (Norway) and Altiden (Denmark) also showed solid gains.

Validia (Finland) experienced rapid growth, but margins were impacted by startup and integration costs from acquisitions.

The company's rolling 12-month free cash flow hit SEK 1.029 billion, marking its first time reaching the SEK 1 billion threshold. Organic growth accounted for 5% of the total increase, while acquired growth contributed 2%. Adjusted EBITA margin improved to 15.0%, up from 13.9%, and operating cash flow rose 12% to SEK 766 million.

However, the company did not disclose actual EPS or revenue figures, so a direct comparison with the forecast cannot be made. Investors were likely more focused on the quality of operating trends, cash generation, and guidance rather than a simple beat-or-miss headline.

Ambea's next steps for growth include the Humana acquisition, which will expand scale but also require a lengthy integration process. Management projects pro forma annual revenue to reach SEK 25 billion, excluding personal assistance in Sweden, with the company targeting 8% to 10% annual growth from 2028 onward. Near-term, profitability is expected to fall below the 9.5% target due to Humana's inclusion.

The company aims to return to the 9.5% margin level by 2028 through synergies and operational improvements. Ambea is targeting SEK 120 million in synergies for 2027 and plans to open about 480 additional care places over the next 12 months, potentially generating SEK 3 billion in annual revenue at current business mix and 2026 price levels.