Copper’s biggest new mine stumbles again as costs soar
A second production downgrade at Ivanhoe Mines’ Kamoa-Kakula delays its recovery as a rival US expansion advances toward 2030 output.
Ivanhoe Mines, led by founder and co-chairman Robert Friedland, has reduced its 2027 copper production forecast for its Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo for the second time this year. The Canadian company now anticipates producing between 300,000 and 350,000 tonnes of copper, down from the previous range of 380,000 to 420,000 tonnes.
This 75,000-tonne decrease from the midpoint of the target was announced after markets closed on Tuesday. The production and cost guidance for 2027 has also been raised, with Ivanhoe now projecting cash costs between $2.50 and $3.00 per pound, up from the previous range of $2.10 to $2.50. The downgrade is attributed to prolonged high diesel prices, lower ore grades, and reduced production.
Ivanhoe's revised outlook reflects a disciplined approach to the ongoing recovery at Kamoa-Kakula, prioritizing operational stability, mining flexibility, and the sustainable recovery of annualized copper production. Analyst Craig Hutchison of TD Cowen downgraded Ivanhoe to hold from buy and cut the target price to C$9 ($6.42) from C$14, citing a longer and more capital-intensive path to restoring the mine's output.
Kamoa-Kakula's production has slowed despite the mine's status as one of the world's largest new copper projects. The mine produced 76,401 tonnes of copper in the third quarter, a slight increase from the previous quarter's 64,328 tonnes. Ivanhoe plans to begin shallow open-pit mining in the first quarter of 2027 alongside its existing underground operations to improve flexibility and boost production.
The company also reduced its 2026 capital spending forecast by $200 million, deferring some of the expenditure to 2027. Copper prices fell slightly on Tuesday, ending at $14,034 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange, its lowest level since mid-August, as uncertainty surrounding the US midterm elections weighed on the metals market.
Despite these setbacks, investment in future copper supply continues. Canadian producer Hudbay Minerals agreed to lead a C$49.8 million investment in Pecoy Copper, a company exploring an undeveloped copper-gold project in southern Peru.
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