As locals head to the polls, a South African prediction market goes live
As South Africans head to the polls, a company is bringing the global prediction market boom home, with prices set by customers and a South African licence.
South Africans have been fervently discussing this election, with 10,526 council seats set to be contested on Wednesday, shaping who will govern the country's eight metros. Betmatch, launched on October 30, offers a locally licensed platform for citizens to back their predictions on these outcomes. Customers can back an event or lay it, with minimum bets starting at R10.
As news breaks and participants reassess their positions, the market can adjust accordingly, providing a measurable gauge of the opinions shaping the election. Betmatch CEO Nick French notes, "South Africans are some of the most opinionated, decisive people on earth. We’re right even when we are wrong, and we'll argue it to the end."
The history of election prediction markets dates back to the US presidential races in the nineteenth century. In the 1980s, the University of Iowa revived interest in these markets with the Iowa Electronic Markets, and a 2008 study by researchers Joyce Berg, Forrest Nelson, and Thomas Rietz found Polymarket's forecasts to be more accurate than 964 polls across five US elections from 1988 to 2004.
Commercial election markets have expanded since 2024, with major players like Intercontinental Exchange investing in Polymarket. Betmatch aims to bring this model to South Africans, providing a regulated and locally operated alternative for those eager to engage with the election's predictions and debates.
Written by urgent.news from IOL's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
