What's on the line for health care in the midterms

Health care is set to be a major issue in the upcoming midterms as voters weigh whether their dissatisfaction with the industry will result in tangible policy changes. The high cost of healthcare is an undeniable reality, and without significant intervention, it's unlikely to become more affordable. Despite this, Democrats are expected to prioritize health care affordability in the next Congress, regardless of their level of success in the election.

However, the party is divided on their approach, and a progressive surge could shift the focus even further left.

The size of any Democratic victory will be limited by the reality of a split government, with President Trump still in office for two more years. Greater Democratic majorities could grant more leverage in negotiations over spending packages or raising the debt limit. It's likely that the boldest changes will be talked about rather than enacted during the campaign trail as 2028 presidential hopefuls begin vying for the party's nomination.

Key races will shape the extent of progressives' influence in the next two years. In Michigan and Maine, Democratic candidates Abdul El-Sayed and Troy Jackson, respectively, are advocating for Medicare for All, a policy that enjoys growing popularity among the public but faces a tough battle. Despite its appeal, moderates who are unwilling to abolish private insurance will likely dominate any Democratic majority.

The role of doctors in politics is also under scrutiny. Several doctors are running for office in key races, including El-Sayed, an epidemiologist who isn't a practicing physician, and pediatrician Annie Andrews. The public trust doctors have garnered over the years is considered a strong asset in their electoral campaigns.

Another major issue is Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s Make America Healthy Again movement, which has focused its efforts on the Iowa governor's race. The movement is pushing for a candidate who pledges to tackle Big Agriculture interests and the use of farm chemicals. This is seen as a crucial vote in testing what's possible in a state to protect people from these corrupt entities.

In California, voters will decide on a controversial one-time wealth tax on billionaires, with most of the proceeds set to fund health care services. The tax, opposed by likely 2028 Democratic presidential contender, California Governor Gavin Newsom, tests voter sentiment on taxing the ultra-wealthy to fund health benefits, potentially sparking a national debate on expanding the federal government's role in healthcare and its funding.

Finally, four states will determine the future of reproductive rights through abortion ballot measures. Nevada and Virginia will consider constitutional amendments protecting the right to abortion, while Missouri will vote on a measure to repeal a 2024 pro-abortion rights amendment. Idaho voters will decide on a law guaranteeing a right to abortion until fetal viability, typically around 23 to 24 weeks into a pregnancy.