What a blue wave could actually do

Upon voting, people flocked to polling locations across North Carolina on November 3, 2026, as seen in the accompanying photo from AFP. This election proved to be a historic one, even before the voting booths opened. Campaigns and their supporters spent astronomical amounts on political ads, while an unprecedented number of lawmakers are stepping down or moving on to different offices, resulting in an unusually large number of open seats.

Moreover, President Donald Trump's approval ratings have plummeted to near-record lows, presenting Democrats with an unprecedented chance to reclaim control of both chambers of Congress by swaying traditionally Republican states.

Both parties are presenting the election as a matter of life and death. Democrats have portrayed the midterms as a desperate attempt to stop Trump and his policies, while Republicans have portrayed it as a shield against far-left activists. Consequently, turnout has been extraordinary, with more than 59 million Americans casting their ballots early, surpassing the early-vote record set in 2022.

In-person voting also saw significant activity in states such as Georgia, Florida, and Maine. However, it may take days or even weeks to receive the final results, particularly in tight races.

Democrats are immensely excited, almost to the point of being overly optimistic, about the potential to seize control of Congress. Polls have consistently favored their candidates for the House, and they require just four additional seats to gain control of the Senate. However, even if they achieve this, there are constraints to what a substantial "blue wave" can accomplish.

Those who anticipate their new representatives storming into DC on white horses and dismantling Trump's agenda may be in for a letdown. The forthcoming two years are likely to be "a grim slog akin to trench warfare," as described by my colleague Andrew Prokop. He spoke to congressional aides and outside experts about what a Democratic majority could achieve over the remainder of Trump's second term.

Their analysis paints a bleak picture, mainly due to the mathematical limitations of the situation. Most legislation necessitates 60 Senate votes to overcome a filibuster, and even the most optimistic forecasts suggest Democrats falling short of that 60-vote requirement, meaning most bills they wish to pass will need some Republican senators to cooperate or be swayed through political maneuvering.

Beyond bill passage, a majority in either chamber would grant Democrats greater influence over congressional investigations and the ability to issue subpoenas. If Democrats secure the Senate, they would also gain control over the confirmation process for senior administration officials and federal judges. Subpoena authority could facilitate more thorough investigations into matters like the Trump family's crypto investments and Trump's fundraising for the White House ballroom.

In addition, a Senate majority would allow Democrats to block Trump's appointments for judgeships and administration posts—an enticing prospect, considering lower courts are becoming increasingly partisan, and two conservative justices on the Supreme Court are nearing 80 years of age.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer warned reporters that he does not anticipate a Democratic victory to convince Trump to "change his ways." However, he emphasized that "we're going to fight Trump tooth and nail...no matter what he does."