‘Wait-and-see’: Hong Kong’s private home sales drop as interest rates are tipped to rise
Hong Kong’s primary and secondary private residential property sales fell in October compared to the previous month, as the expectation of an interest rate increase by year-end draws nearer, according to new market research. Conducted by Centaline Property, the research indicated that Hong Kong recorded 1,410 first-hand private residential property transactions in October, with a total…
Private residential property sales in Hong Kong experienced a decline in October, with new data from Centaline Property revealing a 5.8% decrease in first-hand transactions and a 12.1% drop in transaction value. The total number of transactions reached 1,410, and the total transaction value amounted to HK$18.66 billion (US$2.38 billion).
Secondary private residential market sales followed a similar trend, with a 5.3% decline in transaction volume and a 1.7% decrease in value, totaling 2,864 transactions and HK$24.25 billion.
Roen Yeung Ming-yee, senior associate director at Centaline Property, explained that the expectation of an interest rate increase by year-end has led to a cautious approach among prospective buyers, who are now adopting a 'wait-and-see' strategy. The launch of new first-hand projects at lower price levels has also contributed to the slowdown in secondary-market transactions.
Mortgage registrations have also experienced a decline, with a 28.6% decrease in October compared to September, marking the second consecutive monthly drop. Norry Lee, senior director of projects strategy and consultancy at JLL in Hong Kong, emphasized that recent launch subscribe levels should not be interpreted as the beginning of a broad-based market rally, but rather a reflection of developers' focus on sales velocity, inventory reduction, and capital recycling due to an uncertain interest rate environment.
Looking ahead, Cathie Chung, senior director of research at JLL, predicted a distinct 'volume-led, price-capped' dynamic in the mass residential sector through the end of the year. While aggressive primary launch strategies will drive a Q4 transaction peak, broader capital values will remain disciplined, keeping full-year price growth aligned with JLL's 5 to 10% forecast.
This late-2026 sales push signals a healthy, liquidity-driven stabilization, where developers clear high inventory levels and capital values settle into a sustainable range-bound base.
Written by urgent.news from SCMP Business's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
