US voters head to polls to deliver midterm verdict on Trump

Americans cast their votes in the midterm elections on Tuesday to judge the initial two years of President Donald Trump's second term. Surveys and unbiased analysts predict Democrats will likely gain control of the House of Representatives while the Senate outcome remains uncertain. The Senate race is contested across ten closely watched races, primarily in Republican-dominated regions.

History shows Trump's party has lost ground in Congress in all but two midterm elections since World War Two. Trump's current approval rating is near its lowest point, mainly due to discontent over the Iran war and the subsequent increase in fuel prices. The election is largely focused on Trump, who has repeatedly urged his supporters to "pretend I'm on the ballot," a message Democrats have adopted.

In a recent interview, Trump highlighted his accomplishments in Venezuela and Iran and expressed optimism for fellow Republicans. He even announced his intention to cease $3.8 billion in annual funding to Israel after this year, though the method of doing so remains unclear, given a 2020 law mandating the funding. Israel has been a key issue in Michigan, where progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is running for Senate against Republican Mike Rogers.

Trump has rallied his supporters through over twenty campaign rallies since October, mostly in states he won easily in 2024. Republicans have portrayed Democratic candidates as radical, unpatriotic, and even communist. However, surveys reveal that voters are primarily concerned about affordability, and disapprove of Trump's approach to the issue after his tariffs on imports and the subsequent attack on Iran.

Democrats warn that Trump might challenge the election results if Republicans lose. The Justice Department has deployed 1,000 election monitors and observers in all 50 states, the largest Election Day monitoring effort in history, but Democrats argue it could be seen as voter intimidation. Most of the 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are up for election, but only a few contests are seen as competitive.

Democrats need to win at least three House seats and four Senate seats to gain a majority in each chamber. They must defend all current seats while winning at least two states that voted for Trump by a wide margin in 2024: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Ohio, South Carolina, and Texas. The Michigan Senate race between El-Sayed and Rogers is a high-profile test of whether Republicans' identity-based attacks on El-Sayed, who could be the first Muslim senator, will resonate with voters.

The race in Alaska has been complicated by allegations that a third candidate, sharing the first and last name of the Republican opponent, was recruited by Democratic candidate Mary Peltola, though she denies involvement. The Justice Department has filed a lawsuit to block the certification of election results in Alaska, a move rejected by the US Supreme Court.

In Texas, Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico is hoping to win a Republican stronghold after decades of failure, with billionaire Elon Musk's $9 million investment bolstering Republicans. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton has a narrow polling lead over Republican US Senator Roger Marshall. Maine's Republican Senator Susan Collins is once again attempting to defy the state's Democratic trend and win.