US midterm elections 2026: Prediction markets bet on Democrats winning Senate; Republicans face tough battleground fight
While the overall odds have changed little since Sunday, market predictions are increasingly consolidating in favour of Democratic candidates in several competitive Senate races.
Prediction markets are currently indicating a strong likelihood of Democrats securing control of both chambers of the US Congress in the upcoming midterm elections. According to Kalshi, Democrats have a 74% chance of winning the Senate and a 94% probability of winning the House as of Monday. This represents an 11 percentage point increase in their Senate-winning probability compared to October 2.
On Polymarket, traders have assigned Democrats a 73% chance of winning the Senate, while their odds of winning the House stand at 94%. Democrats require a net gain of four Senate seats and three House seats to secure majority control. The closely watched Senate races in Kansas, Maine, Ohio, Texas, and Alaska, where Democrats are currently leading or tied with Republicans, could significantly impact the Senate balance.
While prediction market odds do not measure voter support and should not replace polling data, they reflect the growing momentum behind Democratic candidates in several key races.
Written by urgent.news from Live Mint's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
